Wintry accumulation continues to trend on the higher end with a conservative average of around 6” for Northwest Arkansas and around 2” in Fort Smith.
🚨Portions of Benton Co may briefly approach blizzard conditions defined by heavy snow and winds near 35mph lasting for 3 or more hours.
Localized totals will be much higher, especially in Benton Co where Bentonville and Rogers will see many locations topping 8” or even a foot where snow banding develops!
Farther south, Ice will accumulate on elevated surfaces in the Fort Smith area into the afternoon. Bridges and overpasses will become slick first. By late afternoon and evening the roads will start to freeze and the rain-frz rain-sleet-snow transition takes place.
Watch the temperature displayed in your vehicle. If it’s 29° or lower… roads are slick it will vary from one side of town to another.
Snow will be everywhere by evening then ending slowly overnight.
Very little melting is expected on Wednesday.
This is a major event with life threatening cold and major snow accumulations across the Ozarks.
Temperatures will be as much as 50 or 60-degrees warmer by Monday!
The coldest time will be Thursday morning with lows -5° to 7°.
Fort Smith could even near 70° by Monday… so there’s that.
Simulated radar in 6-hour increments for today’s winter storm.
***Previous forecast below***
❄️ The latest snowfall accumulation forecast with the National Blend of Models along with the impacts from NWS.
Totals in the Arkansas River Valley will be tough to nail down since liquid will be in all three states: sleet, frz rain, snow.
➡️ Generally, around 2” of mess and snow seems like a good bet for the Greater Fort Smith area with the majority falling in the late afternoon and evening. This is a conservative average.
➡️ Totals north of 412 in Northwest Arkansas could get a little wild. 😳 I wouldn’t be surprised if someone gets a foot in Benton Co.
The average for Bentonville & Rogers should land around 6” with many getting much more. SW Missouri, NW Arkansas and NE Oklahoma may near blizzard condition criteria with winds to near 30mph with blowing snow and low visibility. Yikes.
➡️ Totals will be less farther south. Thinking Washington Co around Fayetteville & Springdale will be an average of around 4”.
These totals are conservative and many will get much more. The social science tells us human nature is to focus in on the highest number which is why forecasting averages instead of absolutes communicates it better. Absolute values are almost always incorrect.
Spread forecasting ie. 6”-10” works but if you saw it over your town would you think 6” or 10”? I’d think 10” 😂 We all do it. If I show ranges, usually I take a 25% haircut on them to be conservative.
🧊 The ice could cause a few power outages in the River Valley or foothills of the Ozarks. It doesn’t appear to be a widespread event but the risk is a little higher than the last several systems.
🚧 One more important note. Road surfaces typically deteriorate at 29° or lower. 30-32° is usually okay during daytime hours unless it’s really coming down. Keep in mind bridges could freeze at higher temperatures.
With rain changing to snow, pretreating roads will be limited since rain will wash it off.
Once you hit 29° and below… it’ll get really bad, really quick. This is late morning for NWA and likely closer evening in FSM.
Also a reminder that models tend to rush arctic air over the Ozarks. It’s shallow and that never happens. Expect the true cold to slow with southward progress until after dark.
High elevation overpasses on I49 could be hazardous as early as sunrise tomorrow. The highest point near Winslow at 2,000ft will be slick as early as late morning with snow moving in.
