We’re still trending towards a snow event Sun PM/Mon AM.
That said, there’s still considerable uncertainty regarding type/amount/band location.
[The first shows the flow in the atmosphere with dashed lines showing the wave moving in. Trough has a positive tilt (NE to SW) which tends to unfold slower]
[The second shows the current forecast snow position around 3pm Sunday tracking SE with the upper flow]
The arctic front arrives this evening (yes, another one) bringing blustery winds and colder temperatures.
Lows tonight will be in the single digits, wind chill temperature will be around -5°
The data has been all over the place with poor run-to-run consistently.
This isn’t a surprise since the computer models struggle to understand the lowest layers of the atmosphere.
A little bit warmer than indicated could lead to a period of sleet before snow. Liquid stays the same but it affects how much snow is measured. For example, some data sets point to around 2” of snow while others are around 5”.
Like life, it’s usually not as bad as it seems but it’s not as good as it seems either. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
Around 2-4” is still a strong possibility. For what it’s worth, this one keeps trending towards more of a FSM/Ouachita event with lesser amounts in NWA.
Regardless, it’ll ALL BE below freezing the entire time so any wintry weather will be higher impact.
It’s important to note that this kind of run-to-run inconsistency (each model run looks different than the one before) can lead to a forecast which could either under or over produce snow amounts.
When I was in broadcasting, I always went middle of the road with snow totals showing the the most likely amount for the largest number of people in situations like this.
If I had to peg this I would say 2-4”. If a band sets up (one will somewhere) it’ll be closer to 6” and of course there will be someone who gets ripped off and only gets 1” or less… probably sleet.
Cold air is also drier too so some could evaporate (or sublime) before reaching the surface initially.
Key messages:
– Trending FSM/South
– 2-4” seems reasonable for everyone
– Models are poor at the moment
– An ice storm seems unlikely
– Timing is Sun afternoon (after 2-3pm?) Ends by Noon Monday
– Impact will high because of how cold it’ll be
– Still a lot of unknowns
