Severe Weather Outbreak 3/14/2024

**KEY MESSAGE**

Strong thunderstorms are likely today as a powerful storm system moves across Arkansas. The most intense storms will happen this afternoon and evening with storms out of the area by midnight. Hail is the primary risk followed by wind and tornadoes. A few tornadoes are possible today. Hail could be up to baseball size with the strongest storm.

This is the surface chart. An area of low pressure and an associated cold front will move across the region. Often the strongest storms happen in the vicinity of the low. The front will eventually end the rain later tonight. The severe threat will spread east into Central Arkansas tonight.

8am Update: This is the first enhanced risk of severe storms for us in 2024. An enhanced risk is a 3 on a scale of 1 to 5. Widespread severe weather will happen in the enhanced area which includes all of NW Arkansas and West Central Arkansas from Hot Springs to Mena. Northcentral Arkansas will also experience strong storms

NEW: The Storm Prediction Center has increased chance of tornadoes. The dashed lines indicated the most likely area tornadoes EF2-EF5 are possible. Remember, however, that most tornadoes are not EF4/EF5, those account for only 2% of all tornadoes.

The hail risk is VERY high today with hail up to baseball size possible with the strongest storms.

Times are approximate; however, a few thunderstorms are likely to develop moving into the Noon hour. These storms may also be severe but the most real estate affected by storms will be later this evening.

By evening, storms will be underway with severe weather occurring in Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

By late-evening, storms will be advancing east. At this time, the threat of tornadoes will decrease but the risk of damaging winds over 70mph will increase.

This image from the NWS shows the highest likelihood for tornado warnings. The percentages are always low for tornadoes due to uncertainty along with areal coverage. That said, the orange color indicated where tornadoes are most likely today.

This image shows the surface low in SE Oklahoma later this evening. Often the strongest storms and tornadoes will occur along and east of the low’s track. This is essentially along I40 in Northwest Arkansas from Fort Smith deep into into the Ozarks up to Harrison.

The supercell composite index gives us an idea of where the strongest storms could occur. Similar to the low pressure track, the supercell risk is highest in southwest Arkansas.

-Garrett